Amazon Prime Day Risk for Retailers: Key Findings
Quick listen: Prime Day is booming, but returns are booming too. Here's what brands should watch, in under 2 minutes.
Amazon Prime Day is back — and it’s bigger than ever.
According to Adobe, this year’s event is projected to lift U.S. online sales to a staggering $23.8 billion.
But if history is any guide, a huge chunk of that spending may circle right back to the returns desk.
Last year, shoppers rushed to grab Prime Day deals and then rushed to Google to figure out how to undo them.
Prime Day Regret: What the Numbers Tell Us
Once a two-day flash sale, Prime Day has evolved into a multi-week retail marathon. But as sales grow, so does second-guessing:
- Return-related search volume: 22.2% YoY
- Return-related searches in July 2024: 172,700
- Projected for July 2025: 180,000+ return-related searches
- Share of return-related searches in the Prime Day query mix: 4.6% in 2024, projected to reach 5.2% in 2025
-content.jpg "Prime Day Regret, Refund Interest Surge")
This isn't just about buyer’s remorse. Modern shoppers are fast, flexible, and not afraid to reverse a decision within days of making it.
July: Buy now. One-click checkout. Delivered in a day.
August:“Why did I buy this?”
“Prime Day doesn’t end at checkout anymore,” says Gianluca Ferruggia, General Manager at DesignRush, a leading B2B marketplace.
“Compared to 141,300 during the same period in 2023, this surge reveals a sharp rise in post-sale friction and growing consumer hesitation.
Retail brands should now consider returns as part of the core customer experience.”
After the sales, search behavior shifts sharply. Top Google queries tell the story:
- “Amazon return policy”
- “Refund on Amazon”
- “Cancel Amazon BNPL”
In August 2024 alone, return-related searches reached 139,100 — a 31.8% increase from the same month in 2023 — showing that post-purchase regret often peaks weeks after Prime Day.
To stay ahead of regret-driven returns, brands must extend the customer journey beyond the purchase by designing post-checkout touchpoints that reassure, educate, and reduce friction.
What Retailers Should Watch in 2025
If return-related search growth continues on trend:
- Return-related searches could surpass 180,000 in July 2025
- BNPL returns may climb, with up to $1.2B in post-sale refund exposure
- Prime Day-related searches may center on returns in more than one in 20 cases
And with Amazon expanding Prime Day to four days this year, the length of exposure to impulse purchases and potential regret increases as well.
“As Prime Day keeps growing, so does the shadow it casts,” Ferruggia added.
“Retailers can’t just focus on conversions anymore. They have to manage the return loop.”
Methodology
This analysis is based on keyword search volume data from Google Keyword Planner, comparing Prime Day-related purchase terms and return/refund-related terms across July and August in 2023 and 2024.
We tracked a curated list of keywords, including:
- Purchase intent terms like:
“Amazon Prime Day,” “prime day for Amazon,” “Amazon prime shopping” - Return intent terms like:
“Amazon return policy,” “refund on Amazon,” “cancel Amazon BNPL”
For each keyword, we calculated:
- Monthly search volume
- Year-over-year (YoY) change
- Share of return-related searches as a percentage of total Prime Day-related searches
This helped us identify trends in post-sale behavior, especially around BNPL regret, refund interest, and the widening gap between buying enthusiasm and follow-up friction.
All search volume figures reflect U.S. desktop and mobile searches in English.
Meanwhile, sales projections were sourced from Adobe Analytics and publicly reported data.
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