Hawaii is leading the nation in projected holiday retail sales growth this year, according to DesignRush’s latest forecast.
The state is expected to achieve an impressive 11.7% growth rate, more than triple the National Retail Federation’s national average projection of 3.5%.
This marks a significant jump from Hawaii’s 8.1% growth in 2023, highlighting the state's strong economic recovery, robust tourism sector, and consumer confidence.
Businesses that tap into this vibrant market can capture the excitement of holiday shoppers and make this season their most successful yet.
Hawaii’s growth stands out due to a unique combination of factors.
The state benefits from a lower general excise tax (GET) of 4%-4.5%, compared to higher sales taxes in other states.
The retail landscape in Hawaii has been significantly bolstered by a resurgence in tourism, with visitors contributing to the success of local and high-end shopping destinations, overall complementing the steady increase in local consumer spending.
Honolulu’s Ala Moana Center and boutique stores across the islands have also reported increased foot traffic and sales this season.
DesignRush General Manager Gianluca Ferruggia explained how retail businesses in Hawaii have a unique opportunity to cater to both local consumers and tourists:
“Targeting high-growth states can provide businesses with strategic advantages.
Additionally, the retail sector in Hawaii is a cornerstone of the economy, supporting 26% of jobs and standing as the state’s largest private-sector employer.”
For retailers operating in high-growth states like Hawaii, adapting to local consumer behavior and leveraging regional trends can maximize success.
Enhancing eCommerce platforms and offering personalized online shopping experiences can also significantly boost retail sales during the holiday season.
How Other States Compare
While Hawaii leads the pack, several other states also show promising growth:
- Idaho: With an 8.6% projection, Idaho continues its upward trajectory after achieving 6.21% growth in 2023.
- Arizona: Expected to grow by 8.2%, up from 3.95% last year, reflecting strong economic conditions and increasing population.
- Nevada: Showing a recovery trend, Nevada is projected to reach 8.1%, bouncing back from 6.1% growth in 2023.
These states are also significantly outperforming the national average, showcasing strong consumer spending and economic resilience.
DesignRush Methodology
Professional market research empowers businesses with crucial data to make informed decisions, optimize resources, and drive growth.
Recognizing the importance of accurate insights, DesignRush conducted an in-depth analysis to forecast 2024 holiday retail sales growth across the United States, emphasizing regional and industry trends through a robust three-step methodology:
- Data Collection: The analysis focused on October–December sales over the past five years (2018–2023), with an emphasis on Clothing and Accessories, using data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
- Growth Rate Calculation: Year-over-year comparisons and industry averages were used to identify state-level trends.
- Trend Forecasting: A linear regression model predicted 2024 growth, incorporating macroeconomic factors like inflation and employment for accuracy.
This approach guarantees that the forecasts are based on historical data, modified to reflect economic conditions, and in tune with current trends, offering a dependable overview of this year's holiday retail sales performance.
